Break down the races: Your Vote Matters

Hi everybody. I know it’s late at night… Action. [Inaudible] as to what we’re seeing. And take it for what it’s worth because it’s about midnight, we don’t have all the results in, not all the races have been called. I’m looking at the Arizona secretary of state site and then also the Maricopa County recorder’s site.

So the good news is that we did not have a blue wave hit Arizona. The bad news is, from a Republican perspective, is that the Democrats did make some gains in Arizona, but when you break down the races, it’s interesting to see the pattern here. So if we look at this state races, let’s start with that.

In the statewide races, basically Republicans won across the board. The governor’s race as I had predicted back in January, Ducey swept the race quite easily. Right now, he sits at 58 to 39, versus Garcia, and I think that’s largely because of the fact that Garcia never brought a vision to the table, whereas Doug Ducey kept a very clear vision.

He was able to present the successes of his first term very clearly and he was able to present what his plans are going to be going forward. He was able to define what the problems are that we have in this state and to find solutions, whereas Garcia was really just constantly really just talking about the bad things that he felt about what Ducey accomplished.

But ultimately, I think the economy won that race. We have a very strong economy in Arizona. We had a very strong recovery versus the rest of the nation, and Ducey has done a strong focus on the economy and bringing jobs to the state and that won.

If we go down through the rest of the list, secretary of state, that was a fairly close race, but Steve Gaynor pulled it off and again, Steve gave a very strong vision as to what he has for the state. Attorney general, I didn’t think that was going to be a very close race at all. State treasurer, Kimberly, he won that, again, not a close race.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The superintendent of public instruction, this is a very close race. Right now, it’s about midnight and we’re sitting at, let me refresh the page and see if we get better results here. So right now we’re sitting at Frank Riggs at 50.3% versus Kathy Hoffman at 49.7, and the split is leading by a little over 8,000 votes. So we might just barely squeak by and pull it off.

But I wanted to compare the superintendent of public instruction versus the school board races. And I didn’t see unfortunately any of our Purple for Parent candidates win on the school board races. And we’re going to just barely potentially squeak by on superintendent of public instruction, which is a little disappointing to me because what that means is that we have Republicans that are showing up to vote and just basically ignoring the school board races.

If you look at the numbers that voted statewide and then look at the numbers who voted for the legislature, they kind of basically ignored the state race and a lot of them ignored the city of Phoenix mayoral race.

I think that’s an area that as just Arizona in general, but especially when it comes to Republicans, it’s an area that we have for opportunity and an area that we should probably look at more focused getting out the vote efforts in that. And the reason why I talk about that is because when you look at the legislative districts, when I was leading up to the election, I was in a conversation with Sam Stone, our chief of staff at the office and he talked about why we don’t focus on the local races, whereas we probably should.

And the reason why I think we should is because the fear is that if the Democrats are able to make inroads to build a bench, we have an issue on the Republican side. And I think that is the bigger concern that I have going forward versus what we saw in this election cycle.

If the Democrats continue to be able to increase voter turnout, like we saw, for example, an LD 28, very clear vision there, and they were able to pull off that election and now we have two Democrats, whereas before it was split in LD 28. If they’re able to continue to pull out the vote and build their bench in these smaller races in the school board races, and we don’t have Republicans that are showing up to vote in those races, if we don’t have Republicans that are showing up in the local races, we’re not building up our bench.

And so what that tells me is that when it comes to us as Republicans going forward, I think one area that we should focus on more is not counting on the fact that Republicans are going to vote on the Republican ticket, I think it’s time for us to focus more on bringing a stronger message and a clear path and a clear plan as to what we’re going to accomplish.

And I think if our candidates paid more attention to that, because even if you look in the legislative races, some of the races we won simply because of the demographics of that district, but there’s other races that we won because the candidate there had a strong message and a strong plan and a strong vision.

And going forward, I think that’s one thing that we can learn from this mid term when it comes into 2020. It’s not about… a Lot of people think that Trump won because he was so tough, but I think that really the reason his success has been more of the fact that he’s given a clear vision and he’s clearly been able to define what the problems are and clearly been able to define what the solutions need to be. And I think that’s an area when it comes to our local races in Arizona that we need to pay attention to.

So if we move on from the statewide races where basically Republicans kept full control for the full state races, and you go on down to the legislative races, Republicans still have for the local Arizona state, we still have control of both the house and the Senate. But what’s interesting is if you look at many of the races, Democrats did gain some traction there. And again, I think that has to do with kind of ignoring that piece of being able to promote a strong vision.

And you know, at the talent of the McSally campaign, I think we worked really hard and we were able to pull that together and show a clear vision. But I think going forward as a party, we’re going to need to make sure that we’re doing that across the board in all of our races, that our candidates are prepared to be able to handle that message.

And then also when it comes to getting out the vote, as Republicans, we’re going to have to recognize that if we’re not out there doing the work, if we’re not out there knocking on the doors, signs aren’t going to be enough. Doing phone banking isn’t going to be enough. We’re going to really need to get out there and earn those votes and get our voters engaged and especially engaging the independents and helping them to see a vision.

And so overall, that’s what I’m seeing as a pattern. When it comes to so far, how the election is showing up. Now, things could change as we get more of these ballots counted. I will say that I am thrilled for the Bullocks. So Justice Clint Bullock was retained 71.52%, I am so thrilled with that. Justice Bullock, I’m a huge, huge fan of. He is the one that I’ve posted on several times that he did the Alma S. ruling where he talks about parental rights and parental fitness versus best interest of the child, and he talks about how Arizona’s system’s unconstitutional. A very bold decision that he made there.

And his wife Shauna, she won her legislative race. So I am thrilled that we have both of them serving as I guess, elected officials since Justice Bullock was retained. I guess we could consider him that. I’m very thrilled about that. Other thing I’m happy to see are the ballot measures, and this again is why I think that the main thing for the Republican Party is one, being able to have our candidates build the bench from school board up. I don’t think we should keep ignoring those races. I think we need to invest more in those races.

Two, being able to show a clear, positive vision, not just attacking the other side for having bad policies or bad solutions, but showing a clear vision as to why us as Republican candidates are the right fit for Arizona. Why we’re the right solution, and I think our candidates need to each and everyone develop that close relationship with the voters.

I had talked to my former chair, who’s the chair of the Maricopa County Libertarian Party, [John Newso 00:10:47], who’s running for water board. He told me about a conversation that he had had before with Kelly Butler, and the first time she ran her legislative race, she lost. And most of her ground game was door knocking.

And so the following race, two years later, she calculated out what she lost by and then she just knocked on that many more doors that were needed, I think, and with extra 3000 doors, and that gave her enough of a margin to win the second time.

And now we see that they kept that same strong ground game and now they’ve won both seats. And it was that connection with the voters that made that big difference. And I think that what we are seeing on the Republican side, that that’s an area that we need to reengage the voters and reengage the independents and show them why our solutions, candidate by candidate works.

And the reason why I say that, candidate by candidate is because if you look at the statewide race of Kyrsten Sinema versus Martha McSally, that race is super, super close. Whereas all of our other statewide races, the Republicans won easily. And so right now, Martha McSally is at 49.43 versus Kyrsten at 48.30 and it’s… let’s see, well there’s a bigger spread now, 4,000… So we have about a 17,000 spread, so that’s a much bigger spread than it was then when I left the Republican Party tonight.

But, again, how much are you able to, as a candidate connect with your voters? And it’s not just going to be good enough just to be a Republican or a Democrat. The letter isn’t good enough anymore. As someone that’s a person of principle, when it comes to voting, I think that’s a good thing.

So now as far as the propositions, I was pretty happy to see where we’re at on that. Proposition 125, which is basically having just a cost of living adjustment to our pension plan, which is to help basically get that fiscally in order. That one at 52%, proposition 126, which was the constitutional amendment, which would prohibit basically on service taxes and services, that one at 65.52% so far. Proposition 127, I’m thrilled with this one. This is the one that was going to exponentially increase the cost of electricity because of mandating renewable energy sources. This one died in a fire.

This is an area that again, the Republican Party had a very focused effort on. No, 127, very focused campaign and it was hugely successful. 69.79% that lost. Proposition 305, now this one was one that I was totally against for the most part. I ultimately ended up voting on it. This is where our empowerment scholarship accounts, or ESAs, they’re also known as vouchers. The legislature had to increase them to 30,000. Now the problem with this going to proposition is the fact that then it would have become voter protected and kept it at 30,000. Now we will go back to the legislature and they’ll have to rework that and come up with a better plan. So I’m very happy to see that. And then either way with proposition 305, whether it won or lost, it honestly, there was good things and bad things about both outcomes.

Proposition 306, this one I am thrilled about, and that’s the reason why is because this has to do with clean election money. As many of you know, my statement on a clean election is clean money is the dirtiest. And this won. And the reason why this proposition is important to me is because essentially what was happening is that as Democrats would run their elections, they’d often run on clean money. We have some Republicans that would run on clean money too.

But they would run basically paper campaigns and then just enough to be able to win the award of the clean money. And then whatever money he was leftover, they’d either give to the democratic party or put into a nonprofit or something like that. And it basically was just left. And it’s not even, people will say, well, it’s taxpayer money. It’s not.

It’s money that comes from essentially what are considered victims of the state, the poorest of the poor. These are people that are getting fined, paying fines and penalties and tickets on top of their fine or their ticket, they’d have to pay an extra 10%. So it basically in some cases after all the fees are tacked on, it would triple the cost of the ticket.

So if you’re someone that’s poor, and you have a regular traffic ticket or let’s say it’s for like not walking your dog on leash, so that’s a $50 ticket, but the time that all the fees are added to it, it’d be like a 100, 150 bucks, that extra money is what ends up going into the clean money pot.

And if you ran as a paper candidate essentially, and you just did enough work to get the clean money fund, then you’d be able to go back and enrich the rest of your party with it. So I’m so glad that that won, because now you’re no longer going to be able to do that. And I think that what we will see is that it’s going to change the quality of our candidates, where it’s going to require our candidates from both parties to have to be higher quality because they’re not going to get that extra benefit. You know, the incentive to run on clean money is gone, which I’m so happy about.

So overall, we’re okay as a state, we didn’t have any type of blue wave or whatever. The Senate race is going to be super close, but it looks like MsSally’s might just might just eke it out. Really disappointed about my LD 28, I was hoping that that was going to turn out differently. But to be fair, the Republicans split the vote on that. I think that shows that no disrespect to the GOP, but if they had just let that race be one mathematically, if you had just… mathematically, there was only enough votes to go around for one candidate, and by splitting the vote in that district, it ended up doing a disservice and almost everyone, I mean that we lost the house, and as far as the state Senate race, that race is super, super close. It looks like Kate’s going to just eke it out, but she’s only leading by 900.

So two lessons I’d say overall are one, well three lessons. One, candidates need to really engage the voters with a positive plan, a very specific positive plan, a very specific strategy, so that voters know exactly what they stand for and what they don’t. Two, Republicans need to focus on building a bench, building a base from the ground up. And so that means getting back involved in just the school board races. That is what threw all of the elections to make them so close, is the fact that they were able to get so much momentum on Red for Ed. And again, that’s just about not communicating a message as to how school choice is beneficial for students in Arizona. And ultimately that’s what it’s about, right? Educating our kids. And so we were kind of caught having to backpedal on that and it hurt a lot of our races.

Three, staying United as a Republican Party and being honest about the numbers and where they lie. And not pushing the envelope in that area over egos. If you’re going to push the envelope, push it on principle, not on ego. So those are my three things.

This is not over for Purple for Parents. Now that we know where we’re standing, and we have the lessons learned, we can move forward to really help to grow our school board races and help to invest in that a little bit more and have the Republicans paid more attention to those races. And then also really reach out to the independence and get them on board with the vision. Get them on board with what are causing the problems that we have. Defining the problems, defining the cause of the problems and defining solutions to it.

And then since we have so many libertarians on here, I’m going to end and talk to the libertarians that are on the feed. I took a look at the races and I’m a big fan of Laura Ebki, out of Nebraska. I’m also a fan of Brandon Phinney, out of New Hampshire and Larry Sharpe, as you all know, and also my good friend, Kash Jackson. and also very much opposed to Nick Sarwark, as many of you know.

Unfortunately, the libertarians were not able to pull through, and I say unfortunately not from a party perspective, but from the fact that a lot of these people are my friends. And here’s the thing, libertarians believe in markets when it comes to elections, or believe in free market when it comes to just anything.

And when it comes to elections, markets are a thing, markets exist. And voters ultimately consistently keep choosing the duopoly. You can insult the duopoly all you want. I did plenty of that while I was a libertarian, but ultimately the market decides who wins and who loses. And voters are still not going to third parties. You can say it’s for the same reasons I said before about a consistent message, blah, blah, blah. But it really has to do with what they see their needs are versus what they see the solutions need to be.

And I saw that there were some libertarian candidates that were bragging about being spoilers because until Republicans or Democrats care about liberty, they’ll keep spoiling elections. I don’t think that messaging works and I think that pragmatism is probably better suited to win elections. I’m going to stay a Republican. The Republican Party, especially in Arizona, fits more of what my ideology is and especially from the perspective of this is where we’re at as far as where the general public is at, and this is where we need to be to get to a Liberty position.

But we have real problems that solutions need to be had. And I think that to my liberty friends out there, I think that we also need to connect better with the voters. At the end of the day, the market has decided and if you want to run a message race, then run as a libertarian, whether it’s local or not. I haven’t checked the water board races, I’m really hoping that [Jen] pulled off a win for that one.

But if you want to run where you’re going to be elected, I think that as we look at all of these races at the legislative level and the races at the, even the local level and the statewide races, I think it’s time to be realistic that if you want to be elected and you want to make a difference from that perspective, you’re going to need to go where the market decides that they’re going to vote for.

Unless you’re wanting to just continue to run message races to change hearts and minds, more to your idea. And that’s where we’re at. Every election season I say that the article is about how voters say we need a third party, but they’re not choosing the third parties that exist. And so you need to make a decision as a candidate, are you going to be a candidate that’s going to present good ideas and win the hearts and minds of people and get elected? Or are you going to just run a message race and choose your party based on that?

For me personally, from the things that I want to accomplish, the Republican Party has become a better fit and I’m happy to see that many of my Republican friends won their races and I’m really looking forward to working on at this next legislative cycle, continuing working on DCS legislation, focusing on criminal justice reform. I hope to be able to work with Ben Toma and the criminal justice study group.

And then locally working on the homeless crisis that we have and also fixing our roads. And making sure that we don’t have any new taxes. And that is going to be my policy focus over the next two years. So love to hear your opinions on this. Let me go through real fast. This live stream is a little bit longer than I expected it to be.

Steve says, “I’m not happy.” Yeah, I’m not happy nationally. We lost the house, which was expected. Nationally, we kept the Senate, which is the most important part because we’ll probably have some more confirmation hearings and be able to push the Supreme Court in a more liberty direction rather than legislating from the bench. But losing the house was a big loss for us.

And that again has to do with connecting with the voters on message. It is not enough to complain about the other party. And in fact, I would encourage instead of just being like the anti-message, to focus on having a pro-message campaign. Define the problem, here’s how I’m going to solve them, and here’s my vision as to what we need to do moving forward and build the relationship with the voters on that rhythm.

….she is awesome. I’m so glad that she’s watching this live stream. She’s one of the hardest working people in the Republican party in the whole state. I am such a huge fan of hers and I hope that we can connect and I can learn more about how she was able to get out the vote so successfully with registering new voters.

Michael Holiday said, “All the millennials coming online need to get the commies and the pedos out of Ed.” Yeah. So again, focusing on local elections, focusing on school board elections, I think that we need to take those much more seriously. Michael said, “Independents [inaudible] need to stop fence-sitting.” If you’re an independent voter, I’m not going to hold that against you. If you’re running for office, I think that voters consistently show they choose parties. And if you’re going to run for office, regardless of whether you want to say, I’m a candidate that’s not bought by the parties or whatever else, voters just don’t care. That’s just the end of it. Voters don’t care. They’re going to vote Republican or Democrat.

Michael said, “Republicans need to claim the moral mantle, not just knock the Dems net. Dems need emotional appeal. How is capitalism more compassionate? How does capitalism create more equality?” Yeah, I completely agree with that. I’m known in my office as the humanitarian of the office, and I don’t just do that because those are the things I’m passionate about. I’m also the humanitarian of the office because I think that I can connect with people on message from a humanitarian perspective.

Facts are great and facts serve a purpose, and math serves a purpose, but at the end of the day, how are you appealing to voters? And different people learn in different ways and the majority of people learn based on emotion and so you need to connect with that emotional story. It can’t just be about facts and logic and reasoning. I wish it could be that simple. It also needs to be based on the humanitarian side, especially with millennial voters. That is what they care about. It’s not just about having the right number at the end of the day, it’s do you have the right numbers? Do you have the right plan and are people really going to benefit from it?

Roberts says, “You can’t watch all the congressional districts for voter fraud.” Voter fraud is a thing. I absolutely think it’s a thing, and I think it’s a problem, but we have such a hot mess when it comes to data integrity of our voter information, and that’s the root cracks of that. And as long as we continue to have piss poor data integrity practices, which is what my expertise is in, is master data management, that is what facilitates voter fraud and that’s where the problem comes into play.

Okay. Too many RINOs, again, what we’re seeing is that voters aren’t caring if a RINO or not. What voters are doing is did you connect with their message? [Sherwin] said, “Republican principles, question Mark.” Yeah. Republicans actually do have principles. When you get active with the party, especially in Arizona, I think in Arizona we have a very strong principled Republican Party. And most of the candidates that weren’t lost, with the exception of Maria Syms, I think that Maria Syms is a very strong principled candidate and she was the only pro-gun person in her race, so I was very happy to support her. I’m still happy to support her.

Let’s see what else. All right, I think that’s it. So Dylan says, “Honestly, attacking the other party only shows a childishness and loses trust. Honestly, for those who run, focus on you and your vision and leave the other party out of it, that is what gains trust.” I do think that there is a place to attack the other party, attack the other candidate on their message and why their plan isn’t going to work. Why it’s not going to be successful. But again, it needs to be met at the humanitarian level.

You need to meet your voters where they’re at. It’s more than just signs. It’s more than just making the phone calls, and it’s more than just door knocking. You need to do those things in a way that you are connecting with your voters, meeting your voters where they’re at, and explaining to them not just from a fact-based position, not just from like a math based position, but from that humanitarian level.

All right guys, I’m going to go, I’ve been talking now for at least a half an hour and that’s way too long. So if you have any other questions, let me know. I think I’ll be going to a Young Republican meeting tomorrow and talking a little bit more about what we learned from this election cycle and what we need to do going forward.

I do hope that one thing ultimately that you see is that your vote absolutely counts. And not voting means that no one knows what your opinion was, and you don’t show up in the numbers. And so if you want to see change, you need to show up and vote. And the idea that there’s no reason in voting because it just gets lost. No, your vote absolutely counts and this election cycle, all over the nation proved that.

So thank you for all the efforts that everyone out there has put in. If you ran as a…. if you knocked on doors, if you got signatures, if you talked to voters if you just talked to your friends and family and got them to vote, thank you so much for all the work that you did. You made a huge impact this election cycle and tomorrow means that 2020 has started.

For the next few months, I’d say focus on policy and what the legislature is going to do and keep those school boards accountable, especially in preparation for 2020. All right guys, have a good night. Love hearing your feedback, and I will talk to you all later.

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